Hey there!
Thanks a lot for signing up for this newsletter. The plan is to experiment with different post formats throughout the next few months. Please don’t hesitate to let me know what you like or dislike throughout the year.
This will probably be the only time I re-post something from UM Hoops, but it makes the most sense to kick off this newsletter with an in-depth look at Michigan and Michigan State.
Not only is it the biggest game of the weekend, it is also a matchup of two teams that I spend most of my time covering.
Think of this as a preview for the type of content that you should expect on a regular basis here.
Rivalry reset
Michigan and Michigan State played three times in the three weeks leading up to the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The Spartans swept the Wolverines, and the final two matchups were for Big Ten trophies.
You can argue that the win of the season for Michigan State was against Duke in the Elite Eight, but sweeping Michigan to close the year is what created MSU’s postseason momentum and deflated Michigan’s.
That binary thinking ignores the fact that Michigan led by 6 points in the second half in the first meeting, and had a double-digit lead in the final two games.
It also tells the story of last year's series. Both teams were finished products by the time they met. They knew exactly who they were and what they wanted to do. There was no uncertainty about roles, rotations, or plans.
The games were determined by execution. Michigan State made winning plays in crunch time -- on offense and defense -- and Michigan didn't.
With an early January meeting, this year feels different. Both programs are still trying to discover an identity.
Michigan has an injury concern at the four with Isaiah Livers and coaches on both benches expect that players like Franz Wagner, Rocket Watts, Aaron Henry, or Brandon Johns Jr. will be vastly improved by February or March.
MSU's ball screen offense isn't what it was at the end of last season
Last season, Michigan State underwent a mid-season transformation after Joshua Langford was ruled out for the season. The Spartans slowed the game down and became more dependent on the high ball screen. The adjustment put everything in Cassius Winston’s hands and he delivered, leading MSU to a pair of Big Ten trophies and a Final Four.
Winston entered this season as the favorite for National Player of the Year, based in part on the assumption that Tom Izzo would continue to rely on that style of offense.
Up to this point, that hasn't quite been the case.
Michigan State finished 2018-19 ranked 23rd nationally in ball screen efficiency and used an average of 18.8 ball screen plays per game.
Before that mid-season adjustment, the Spartans averaged just 14.2 ball screen plays per game. After Jan. 1, when the offense shifted into Winston's hands, that number jumped to 20.3 ball screen plays per game.
Michigan State hasn't rediscovered the same level of ball screen offense this year. The Spartans have been less efficient in ball screen situations, ranked 210th nationally at .82 points per play, and have logged only 17.6 ball screens per game.
You can see all three data points on this plot, along with Michigan’s ball screen attack.
Michigan State's ball screen offense could be a sleeping giant that Izzo starts to lean on in conference play, but it could also be flawed in a way that won't allow it to reach last year's ceiling.
While Winston has been slightly less efficient when he creates his own offense this season, the pieces around him are the more pressing issue. A year ago, Winston's teammates scored 1.04 points per play when he found them out of ball screens. This year, they are scoring just .95 points per Winston ball screen pass out.
Replacing Matt McQuaid and Kenny Goins, who made a combined 129 threes -- 3 per game -- on 38% shooting is the root of the problem. In 2019-20, Michigan State's four current starters other than Winston have combined to shoot just 42 of 129 (32.5%) from 3-point range.
Xavier Tillman is Michigan State's glue
Michigan State is a different team with Xavier Tillman on the floor. On/off-court splits aren't a perfect statistic, but Tillman's numbers are too significant to ignore.
Per Hoop Lens, the Spartans outscore opponents by 34 points per 100 possessions with Tillman on the court. When he's on the bench, they are outscored by 4 points per 100 possessions.
Tillman is averaging 30.1 minutes per game, an impressive number for a center, and has done an excellent job of staying out of foul trouble this season. He's only been whistled for 3.2 fouls per 40 minutes this year, after picking up 4.7 fouls per 40 a season ago.
Winston's mid-range game looms large
While it is easy to get caught up Year III of Winston v. Simpson, there's a notable difference. Juwan Howard's Michigan is not John Beilein's Michigan. Howard hasn't implemented wholesale changes, but he did restructure Michigan's ball screen defense.
Rather than asking Jon Teske to hedge and recover, Howard has implemented drop coverage against ball screens. That means that the ball handler's defender will trail the screen to contest from the rear while Teske drops into the paint and defends two: protecting against a pass to the roll man while contesting the shooter.
The defense is vulnerable to pick-and-pop threats, but Xavier Tillman's 35% 3-point shooting on limited volume unlikely to sway Michigan's coaching staff -- although Tillman has made 5 of his last 8 triples.
The issue for the Wolverines is that the defense is designed to funnel opposing guards into tough mid-range twos. That's a low-efficiency shot overall, but Winston has excelled at making it over the last two seasons.
Not only can Winston hit a mid-range jump shot, but he also has a fantastic runner and floater from multiple angles. Winston was 14-of-21 around the basket against Michigan last year, and while he hasn't been shooting it at the same level as last season, he's still a threat against Michigan's drop coverage.
Michigan's guards will need to create their own offense
The preferred approach to slowing down Michigan's ball screen offense is not a secret: make the guards score. Michigan State did just that last season. The Spartans switched ball screens and drew Michigan's guards into one-on-one scenarios.
Over three games, Michigan's guards and wings accounted for 64 plays in ball screen or isolation situations. They only managed to score 37 points, a meager .58 points per play. Simpson (17 points on 25 plays) and Jordan Poole (12 points on 20 plays) were the primary culprits as Michigan's offense flatlined in crucial moments.
Michigan State's base defense is generally to soft hedge against ball screens. The Spartans rarely switch 1-5 in the ball screen game, and infamously never did against Moritz Wagner in 2017-18 despite having Jaren Jackson Jr. on the roster.
Izzo has an ace in the hole this year because he knows that Xavier Tillman is capable of switching if needed. Michigan State doesn't have to open the game switching, but it can adjust any point because of Tillman's proven defensive versatility.
Zavier Simpson's finishing could be the most important stat in the game on Sunday.
On the year, all but four of his 2-point attempts have been either at the basket or some version of his infamous right-handed hook shot. He's shooting 65% on 2-pointers in wins (5.1 attempts per game) compared to just 36% in losses (10.3 attempts per game). There's a high probability that Simpson ends up with double-digit 2-point attempts versus the Spartans and his ability to finish over MSU's size could tell the story.
U-M is not the same team without Isaiah Livers
Michigan's ball screen offense is one of the best in the country because every player around Simpson is a capable 3-point shooter.
Isaiah Livers and Eli Brooks are both shooting better than 40% from 3-point range, which means opposing defenses can't afford to help off of them when defending pick-and-roll actions. With Livers potentially sidelined with a groin injury — his official status is day-to-day — Michigan loses that threat.
Brandon Johns Jr. is an energy player who is playing the best basketball of his career, but he's just 2-of-10 from 3-point range on the year. Combined with Franz Wagner (29% from 3), Michigan might not have the weapons to stretch a Michigan State defense that leads the Big Ten with .9 points per possession allowed in conference play.